Emergency backup
Everyone can comment here for now. I'll see if I can fix this.
UPDATE: My guess is that we're going to be here for the next few days. I hope not. I can tell you this: there are going to be some changes around here.
posted by Mac @ 4/19/2007 08:09:00 AM
27 Comments
27 Comments:
Some people wonder why Mike Hargrove sucks. Here's a good example: "A good third base coach is not doing his job unless he is getting guys thrown out at home plate," Hargrove said.
The concept behind that old baseball axiom (that hargrove certainly didn't make up) is that if the third base coach is aggressive, and men are getting thrown out at the plate, then there are also men scoring who otherwise would have been held up at third.
OR in other words, if no one is getting thrown out, then he probably isn't sending enough guys. Hence, he's not doing his job.
Ooh, what sorts of changes?
I'm really enjoying this Braves team so far, by the way.
wow mac, does this have something to do with the rally red? i felt violated by these unfamilliar surroundings...
So back to te game. This Hill kid is the deal, he's gone 7 innnings in each of his starts and his ERA is below 2. He did battle some control issues the last time out of the gate so perhaps the Braves can work the count on him.
Alex,
I once had a banker tell his loan officers that they did not have enough charged off loans. That is, if they don't take a little bit of risk, they can't put enough money out to make money. If Hargrove added the word "sometimes" between "unless" and "he" then it makes sense.
I would submit that the rate of needed success (to justify sending) with a single runner on in a close game with two outs is probably far lower than the rate of sending. That is, that greater error occurs in holding the runner than in sending him.
Didn't Smoltz beat DeRosa in a home run derby one time?
-Smitty
I mean, I understand the concept: you want to play aggressive baseball, you want to force the other team to beat you, all that good stuff. But getting runners thrown out at home plate--like making the first or third out of the inning at third base--should be at the top of the list of things you want to avoid. Particularly if you get tagged out "easily," as happened to Adrian Beltre.
Dale Sveum got a whole lot of guys thrown out at the plate. That doesn't mean he was doing a good job.
By the way, sorry for the double post, but let me introduce myself in case there's confusion: I'm Another Alex R.
sounds like Gonzo has a "tender" elbow...this will not end well.
I don't think you'll notice many of the changes. There have been some problems with Braves.net the past few months and while I'm not exactly needy I would at least like to know who to talk to when there is a problem. Braves.net may be a zombie site. I am probably shifting to a new host; I have a couple of irons in the fire.
Gonzalez is having an MRI. Hopefully it is just a precautionary move.
Tender elbow huh? Lets just call it what it is: Mike Hampton Elbow. Send him to the surgeon and get it over with.
It wouldn't surprise me to find out that Gonzo'll need TJ surgery. Probably should have had it last year with the pirates and that also makes sense as for why they were trying so hard to unload a young closer with awesome stuff and a perfect save record.
Also getting an MRI: Ryan Howard, on his knee.
I hope he's not that badly tore up. We can really use him...
Now you sound like a Florida student, Rob. ;)
Haha, shut up. I knew that was going to sound uneducated when it left my fingers.
I hope that the injury will not be debilitating enough for him to not be able to perform at peak physical capacity.
Vanderbilt yuppie...
Don't make me make you tore up.
Not sure if this has been mentioned on any of the previous threads since I can't currently read them.... Bobby Cox has had his contract extended for 2008.
Does anyone have a link to the Gonzalez MRI story?
Bring it on, woman.
story
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070419&content_id=1918092&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
That would suck about Gonzo.
So, sending runners home when you have a good hitter walking on deck is criminal. The third base coach has to be aware of who's coming up next. Example of this was the Dodgers coach the other night sending Garciaparra to the plate with Russell Martin on-deck (who's been on fire).
I'd otherwise agree that you do want to take some risks as the 3rd base coach, make the other team make the play, but know the situation!
where did this 3B coach thing come from?
so surely the Braves took out a policy on Gonzo. I know he's not the most expensive guy out there, but he is high risk
Everyone involved says they think he's alright, so I don't think it's time to panic or anything yet. DOB over at ajc.com said something in his story about it being in a completely different part of the elbow, and that it's not actually directly affecting his pitching, so maybe it's absolutely nothing.
Frankly, I'm actually relieved that Cox wasn't using Colyer and Moylan in the eighth inning by choice. I still can't believe we got out of that inning.
OK figure it this way ... if there are two outs the chance of the guy on third scoring via a hit is roughly the average of the pitcher's allowed BA and the hitter's own BA. In the NL, on average, that will come out around .265. So the runner should be sent anytime the odds are greater than 73.5% (1.000 - .265). Having watched hundreds (thousands?) of games over the years, I can tell you, runners trying to score with two outs are successful far more than 73.5% of the time which suggests that 3B coaches are more conservative than they ought to be. We just remember the ones who get thrown out because it is such a big play. (Obviously the math changes with less than two outs. Less obviously, it does as well as with additional runners on base because the possibility of hanging up a crooked number, but its modelable and in this ballpark.)
Anyway ... I'm concerned about McCann's defensive style. Yes, he's a great hitter for a catcher. But he tends to reach for pitches rather than shift his body to get in front of them. With good hands, he can *usually* get away with it, but it is risky and can lead to unneeded WP and PBs. Javy Lopez was the same way, reaching instead of shifting, so maybe its a team decision to not get the catcher overly beaten up moving around behind the plate. But I don't like it.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home